The Connection Between Models and Reality
Introduction
In this post, the relationship between models and reality is described in the "three truths". You will learn how all the dynamic systems can be connected with the real world around us. The concept of the three truths will allow you to perceive the world and all its components as dynamic systems.
Key concept
3 truths:
1. Everything we think we know about the world is a model. Every word that we pronounce is a model. Every language that people can speak is a model. All the databases, books, computer programs, and so on are the models. Even whatever you picture for yourself in your mind are your mental models. None of what has been described is the real world.
2. Our models usually have a strong congruence with the world. The strongest mental models that people are creating inside of them are the models that can be seen from direct, intimate experiences of people, nature, organizations, and so on. That is why humans are successful as a spice in the biosphere.
3. Our models fall far short of representing the world fully. Because of this, people make mistakes and interpret the world not how it appears in fact. Because of these mistakes, people are often getting surprised. Often, people can draw the illogical conclusions from inaccurate assumptions that they create in their mental models.
Example:
To make it easier to understand the aforementioned concepts, we created a Sysdea model (you can find a tutorial on how to use Sysdea in one of our other lessons). In the model above, you can see how we schematised a real system into a model based on the first truth. From a general point of view, you rarely think that everything can be separated into variables, inflows and outflows. This proves that if we take any activity or product it could be linked to many other future stages of the model.
On the second figure, it is being proven that in the world nothing exists in a vacuum. According to our model, there is not only one way the process is happening (in the previous step we had only cotton production and how it turns to personal clothes and then second-hand usage of it, or charity). Now, time to think of what else we produce from cotton? Fishing nets can be made from it. They can be done from cotton AND nylon. Nylon, in its own turn, can be used for production of clothes.
So, according to the second truth, we see the world is very connected in various steps. So the rule number 2 is important because it allows us to connect different models into one big model, making our world more complex.
So, according to the second truth, we see the world is very connected in various steps. So the rule number 2 is important because it allows us to connect different models into one big model, making our world more complex.
Furthermore, we are sometimes mistaken with connecting events/processes. Figure 3 shows that expected link between “Renewable resources” and “Cotton” does not include important steps in between.
We can see that from renewable resources it is not an easy outflow directly to cotton but it involves variable steps. Thus, it calls upon truth number 3, which is very important because it helps us understand and process the information better, minimising the risk of failure. It also helps us understand where the delays are and how to modify them.
Conclusion
What do I know? Now, you know the relation between the world and the dynamic model. Understanding the system and its many connections/ links will help forecast events and take into account risks. What can I do now? For example, you plan on building a factory in China and you have to not only think about the political situation there, etc., but also about how Vietnam is developing international business, while stealing part of the market share of China.
Reference:
Meadows, D. H., & Wright, D. (2015). Thinking in systems: a primer. White River Junction, VT: Chelsea Green Publishing.
Conclusion
What do I know? Now, you know the relation between the world and the dynamic model. Understanding the system and its many connections/ links will help forecast events and take into account risks. What can I do now? For example, you plan on building a factory in China and you have to not only think about the political situation there, etc., but also about how Vietnam is developing international business, while stealing part of the market share of China.
Reference:
Meadows, D. H., & Wright, D. (2015). Thinking in systems: a primer. White River Junction, VT: Chelsea Green Publishing.